So I realized that so far, the Senate races I’ve been following have all been in low-population states with relatively cheap media markets: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma.
Now, I have to figure out how to “scale up” my interpretations of information–fundraising, cash-on-hand, poll numbers, poll undecideds, (dis)approval/familiarity ratings…
Like, for example, a 10-point deficit in poll numbers is one thing in Nebraska, but is it the same thing in Texas? If not, how does it depend on money and candidate familiarity? Obviously, I’m thinking about the fact there’s a ton more people in Texas, and the media markets probably cost more (I know that Alaska and Idaho have cheap media markets, though I’m not sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma).
Got any suggestions?
Maybe you could figure out from a previous election how much the candidates spent and divide it by the number of votes cast. That would give you a rough measure of cost per vote.
From that you could approximate how many votes you’d have to swing to overcome a 10 point deficit.
Though there are probably a million things that could skew those numbers, but it might give a rough idea.